What a rollercoaster ride the last 24 hours has been with regard to our war
with Hamas.
Yesterday Egypt announced a proposal for a ceasefire: Both sides would stop
firing, and then in 48 hours parties would convene in Cairo and – via an
intermediary – discuss terms for a more permanent truce. Kerry was said to
be coming to Cairo to participate.
This really did not have a good feel to it, and there was anxiety in
several quarters here regarding what appeared to be pending capitulation by our
prime minister. For word had come out that he was favoring acceptance of
this proposal. Was he going to say that we had done enough, and that it
was now time for ‘quiet for quiet’?
For the bottom line is that we have not done enough – I don’t care what
Defense Minister Ya’alon says. Yes, there are ways in which Hamas has
taken a real beating. But I’m picking up on reports that indicate that the key
leaders, sitting in their underground tunnels, are alive and well and would be
ready to pick up the fight again in no time. Similarly, because of the
tunnels and the use of human shields, a large portion of the rockets remains
intact and ready for future use. One source said we’ve destroyed one-third
of their rockets. Ya’akov Amidror – who is a straight talker – says they
have retained 90% of their high quality rockets.
No, it hardly time seemed like time to call it quits if there is serious
intent to make sure that Hamas does not come back at us again in two years or
three. Or four or five.
Of course, there was always the question of what Netanyahu would demand at
those truce negotiations. But yet...but yet...
~~~~~~~~~~
This morning the prime minister called a 7:00 AM meeting of the
eight-person Security Cabinet to discuss the Egyptian proposal. Word came
out that they had decided to accept the proposal. Only Naftali Bennett and
Avigdor Lieberman were opposed, and they were both furious. Hearts
dropped, stomachs tightened, all over Israel. This looked like caving, a
disastrous show of weakness. My own depression (and yes, I know what
depression is) was heavy.
At 9:00 AM we stopped all attacks on Gaza.
~~~~~~~~~~
But Hamas, adamantly and defiantly refusing the Egyptian proposal, kept
right on firing rockets at us – at least 50 in the next six hours.
Credit: Yonaton
Sindel/Flash90
Hamas would have had trouble accepting the ceasefire because they had not
achieved any significant “victories.” With their honor-shame mental-set,
it would have been near impossible to do. Especially as they did not
anticipate any major victory in the negotiations – no Gaza blockade lifted, no
Hamas prisoners released. Their leaders actually complained about this: How can
we stop when there is nothing indicated about what terms would be? All
that was discussed was a readiness by Israel to open crossings to let additional
supplies in.
It took six hours. At 3:00 PM, Netanyahu said, “That’s it!” He
ordered attacks on Gaza to begin again, and about half an hour later they
started.
~~~~~~~~~~
Well now...we were suddenly seeing something different. And perhaps
quite brilliant.
Netanyahu had been seeing the growing criticism of Israel around the
world. The scum in Hamas, by encouraging human shields, had upped the
casualties and secured multiple PR opportunities for talking about how Israel
hits innocent children. (See more about this below.) In multiple
quarters, there were anti-Israel voices being raised. Forgotten is the fact that
Hamas started firing those rockets first. Or that we abort sorties to save
children.
Our prime minister (and the Cabinet?) likely saw that carrying through a
major operation would have been increasingly problematic because of large scale
international criticism. The dynamic needed to be changed.
And this undoubtedly changed it. The situation was structured so that
Netanyahu became a seeker of peace, the person willing to stop shooting.
And Hamas was the party that sought violence even in the face of quiet.
Credit: Olivier
Fittousi
This is what Netanyahu said at a press conference earlier today with the
German foreign minister (emphasis added):
“...the refusal of Hamas to honor the ceasefire
"gives Israel full legitimacy to expand the operation to protect our
people."We agreed to the Egyptian proposal in order to give an opportunity for the demilitarization of the Strip - from missiles, from rockets and from tunnels - through diplomatic means.
“But if Hamas does not accept the ceasefire
proposal, as would now seem to be the case, Israel would have all
international legitimacy to broaden the military operation to achieve the
required quiet."
~~~~~~~~~~
John Kerry had cancelled his trip to Cairo, because there were not going to
be any ceasefire negotiations after all. From Vienna, he said (emphasis
added):
"I cannot condemn strongly enough the
actions of Hamas in so brazenly firing rockets in multiple numbers in the face
of a goodwill effort to offer a
ceasefire, in which Egypt and
Israel worked together, that the international community strongly
supports.
Hamas is "purposely playing politics" by
continuing the rocket fire, using innocents as "human shields... against the
laws of war. And that is why they are a terrorist
organization."
How about that? He cannot tell us to use “restraint” now, can
he?
~~~~~~~~~~
I’m going to stick my neck out here, with pure speculation, colored by a
bit of intuition. (No one has let me in on any secrets.) I think it
possible that Egypt was complicit in setting up a situation that cornered
Hamas. I think this did not just “happen.” I’ve provided evidence in
recent days of an Egyptian desire to have Israel take out Hamas. Their
role in the current scenario has helped to make it more possible.
~~~~~~~~~~
How far will Israel now go towards taking Hamas out? This remains to
be seen. Still tonight, I hold my breath, as I wait to see what
unfolds. The nation is so weary of this, and so eager to be done with
Hamas.
We are being told there is a long operation likely ahead of us, and that
what must be done will be done. But this tells us nothing. The prime
minister says the war will intensify. Lieberman is pushing for us to take
over Gaza.
YNet quotes an unnamed “senior military official,” who said:
“A ground offensive could help combat the many
tunnels in the Strip, where the Air Force is not effective...
"Our recommendations to the political
leadership were clear on this issue. A ground maneuver to destroy the
tunnels will take somewhere between a week and two weeks, and the troops
deployed to the border are trained for this and prepared for this.
There is a small but significant amount of tunnels that we've yet to expose, and
they're targets in this maneuver.
[A ground offensive against the terror tunnels]
"has high chances of being successful. It will require
confrontation with the enemy and the evacuation of civilians, and will lead to
the increase of rocket launching at Israel, but we trust the
troops. The solutions will come from the fighting forces on the field,
from the bottom, not just from the army command." http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4543811,00.html
I will add here that trusting the troops with solutions from the bottom is very Israeli.
~~~~~~~~~~
Data of note:
In a report it just released, CAMERA has revealed Israel has killed “mainly combatant-age males, not women or children”: a close read of the data “shows that, as in past hostilities, the fatalities are disproportionately [compared to the overall population] among young males, which corresponds with the characteristics of combatants. Males over 40 years old are also disproportionately represented. Some of the fatalities in those over 40 years of age likely represent senior members of terrorist organizations.”
This contradicts “media reports that tried to paint Israel’s Operation Protective Edge as indiscriminately killing civilians.”
http://www.algemeiner.com/2014/07/15/watchdog-al-jazeeras-gaza-fatalities-data-indicates-israel-killed-mostly-combatant-age-males-not-women-or-children/
~~~~~~~~~~
Keep praying for our soldiers, please! And for all of Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
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